Urbanization in Africa has been unfolding at a rapid pace, and this trend is expected to continue through at least 2050. In fact, the United Nations predicts that Africa will account for nearly half of the global population growth in the coming decades. With the continent’s urban population expected to triple by 2050, that means there will be nearly 1.3 billion Africans living in cities.
With this in mind, what are the urban areas to watch on the continent, and what will this mean for rural areas?
Photo: Johannesburg, South Africa (South Africa Tourism/ Flickr)
What's driving urbanization in Africa?
This wave of urban growth is driven by increasing economic opportunities generally found in cities, sustained population growth, and migration from rural areas. As a result, cities in Africa are expected to become larger and more densely populated in the coming years.
With this growth, though, the number of informal settlements and slums is expected to increase (estimates already put this category at 60% of urban populations). Complicating that will be continued and expanding challenges in providing adequate housing, transportation, and infrastructure for the growing population. The need for sustainable urban development will become increasingly important, as well as addressing challenges such as poverty, inequality and climate change.
Therefore, cities, governments, and businesses will need to consider multifaceted approaches on the continent. With so many factors at play, partnerships and collaborations will be key to addressing these challenges. Equally important will be having a firm grasp on the dynamics and trends in municipalities and countries, which can often be very different.
Urban areas to watch
Some of the cities in Africa that are expected to experience the biggest population shift in the coming years include:
Lagos, Nigeria
With a projected population of over 40 million by 2050, Lagos is set to become one of the largest cities in the world. It is already one of the fastest-growing urban areas in Africa, and is expected to continue to attract migrants from other parts of Nigeria and West Africa in search of economic opportunities.
While housing and sanitation remain major obstacles, Lagos faces a number of unique challenges to future development, but a lack of clear and effective structures for governance coupled with poor education and employment opportunities could prove major barriers to development.
Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
The metropolitan heart of D.R.C. will likely be home to over 20 million people by 2050, putting it on track to be one of the largest cities in Africa. The city is already a major economic hub and is expected to continue to attract migrants from other parts of the country in search of work.
The World Bank notes that the city will be forced to reckon with its “epic traffic jams, widespread poverty, unreliable electricity, decades of violent confrontation” if it is to succeed in the long term.
Luanda, Angola
If current trends continue, Angola’s capital city will be home to over 10 million by 2050. Like Kinshasa, it is expected to become one of the largest cities in Africa. Already the economic center of Angola, the municipality looks set to continue attracting migrants from other parts of the country in search of work.
With a significant informal economy (estimated at 40% of the country’s GDP) which includes an extensive informal water supply network, could the city end up being a hub for innovative business ideas borne more out of necessity than entrepreneurial spirit?
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
With a population expected to double to over 10 million by 2050, Addis Ababa is on track to join the list of largest cities in Africa. The city – and country – is already a major regional economic hub and like cities already mentioned, is expected to continue to attract migrants from other parts of the country.
While the deadly conflict in Tigray appears to be coming to a resolution, it displaced millions, the effects of which will be felt over the coming decades. In spite of this, Addis remains a regional and continental center, as well as the cultural, financial, and administrative capital of the country.
Additionally, its status as home to the African Union headquarters ensures that it will continue to be a focal point in continental politics.
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Between 2000–2018, Dar es Salaam’s population grew by 168%, and estimates project a population of over 10 million by 2050. The city is already a major economic hub and rural migration into the urban area looks certain to continue.
Additionally, Dar’s position as a major port city and as a connection for Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia, and the D.R.C. will help it maintain a certain allure and economic standing in the region.
Key to watch will be national fiscal policy: A recent uptick in the national deficit after years of fiscal discipline could be an anomaly or a new, worrying trend.
The future of rural communities
While the above cities represent only a handful of the urban areas expected to grow in the coming years, equally important will be watching how rural communities manage the exodus of people from towns and settlements.
This future is looking increasingly complex and multifaceted, and it is influenced by a variety of factors such as economic development, population growth, climate change, and government policies. Some potential developments for rural communities include:
Continued migration to urban areas
According to the World Bank, the rural population in Sub-Saharan Africa has been on the decline since the 1960s (from 85% of the total continental population in 1960 to 59% in 2020). As urban areas continue to grow and offer more economic opportunities, it is likely that rural communities will continue to experience a loss of population as people migrate to cities in search of work.
Decline in agricultural productivity
Climate change, land degradation, and a lack of access to modern technology and inputs are expected to lead to a decline in agricultural productivity in many rural areas in Africa. Already, over 340 million on the continent are affected by the food security crisis. This could lead to an increase in poverty in rural communities and continue to drive migration to urban areas.
While practices like precision agriculture could help reverse this trend, they will need to be rolled out widely and cost-effectively in the near future to have a meaningful impact.
Increase in environmental degradation
As population growth and economic development place pressure on natural resources, rural communities in Africa are expected to experience an increase in environmental degradation, such as deforestation, soil erosion, and water scarcity. Already, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN has highlighted this, noting in 2021 that “up to 65% of productive land is degraded, while desertification affects 45% of Africa’s land area.”
Increase in poverty
As rural communities face declining agricultural productivity, environmental degradation, and a loss of population, poverty is likely to increase in many rural areas in Africa. If government policy does not help address this divide, economic resources will continue to coalesce in cities and drive inequality.
Positive impact from technology
Despite these challenges, it’s not all bad news. As mentioned above, new technologies such as precision agriculture, renewable energy, and improved communication technologies can help support rural communities and improve their livelihoods.
Further, the African Union Development Agency has developed the AU High-Level Panel on Emerging Technologies (APET) and the Calestous Juma Executive Dialogues (CJED) to “harness innovation and emerging technologies for socio-economic development.”
Final note
The data and trends leave little doubt that African cities are set to continue their rapid urbanization in the coming decades. Each municipality faces its own challenges in dealing with this future, and the opportunities and risks are enormous.
While the future of rural communities in Africa is somewhat uncertain, much will depend on the ability of governments and other organizations to address the challenges facing these communities, and to find ways to support sustainable economic development and improved living standards in these areas.
While it's worth noting that these projections are based on current trends, many factors such as economic development, political stability, and climate change may affect the outcome of urbanization in Africa.
To find out more about these trends and where your business could find opportunities on the continent, contact us today.