Written by Manon Bertrand
Launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as the “New Silk Road,” is a massive China-led, international infrastructure project
representing one of the most significant and far-reaching investment projects of the century. But what is the BRI, and as it enters its second decade, how is China potentially rethinking the strategy in Africa?
Photo: President Cyril Ramaphosa hosts President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China on a State Visit to South Africa (Government ZA/ Flickr)
Originally envisioned linking East Asia and Europe in an era of growing international trade, the BRI has expanded to include Oceania, Latin America and has been increasingly active across Africa. Today, China’s political and economic influence on the continent is undeniable: China has become the largest trading partner of Africa accounting more than $282 billion in trade.
Opinion is frequently split on the BRI: Some analysts consider it a worrying – and potentially problematic – expansion of the Chinese power that offers a competing vision to those of the United States and Europe. But for nations that have lagged developmentally, especially in Africa, serious engagement with and investment from China is seen as something they have long sought: To be treated like a partner, not a beneficiary. Building relationships today could set China as a de facto trading partner for the continent tomorrow.
The United States has been vocal about the problems it sees with the plan, accusing China of “debt trap diplomacy,” or that the loans being made are pushing Africa into unsustainable debt, in the name of building poorly conceived and executed infrastructure projects. The Standard Gauge Railway in Kenya has been a particularly potent symbol of the problems that have arisen from the BRI, and there has been no shortage of similar projects across the continent. But such catchy headlines obscure the successes and the recent, potential pivoting of the BRI strategy for the coming decade.
Case in point: Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s most profitable aviation group, has recently benefitted from the BRI by introducing commercial and cargo flights between Ethiopia and China. This strategic alliance coincides with the 50th anniversary of the launch of Ethiopian Airlines’ passenger service to China, and through it, the airline can now link its main hub Addis Ababa to the rest of the world and especially the Chinese cities of Guangzhou (CAN), Shanghai (PVG), Zhengzhou (CGO), Changsha (CSX), Wuhan (WUH) and Chengdu (CTU).
Ethiopian now serves more destinations in China than any other African carrier. One of the most popular Chinese passenger routes, Guangzhou, highlighted a significant increase in the number of flights to ten flights per week. By investing in a service over hard infrastructure, and with Addis Ababa Bole International Airport’s capacity of 22 million passengers per year, China appears to be laying the foundation for a strong link with this critical market.
And the arrangement is not limited to passenger flights: In 2023, Ethiopian Airlines decided to expand its cargo network into China with two weekly flights to Xiamen (XMN) and Shenzhen (SZX). These new destinations will support the pre-existing cargo routes. In line with the rapid growth of Ethiopian Airlines, there are plans to increase the airline’s fleet. The objective, being to get China and Africa closer, is part of the strategic alliance that helps boost trade, investment, and bilateral cooperation.
Ethiopian Airlines Group CEO, Mesfin Tasew explained, “We are glad that we are ramping up the frequencies of our flights to Chinese cities thanks to the easing of flight restrictions by the Government of China. China is one of the largest markets for Ethiopian Airlines outside Africa, and the increase in flight frequencies will help revive the trade, investment, cultural and bilateral cooperation between Africa and China in the post-Covid era. Thanks to our large network across Africa, the increase in the number of flights to Chinese cities will bring Africa and China closer. We are keen to further expand our service to China going forward.”
So, how does an investment in flights benefit both countries? For Ethiopia, it represents the possibility to play on the Chinese market and make the main city of Addis Ababa a real door to the African continent. Currently, Cairo and Johannesburg hold the number one and two spots for international arrivals on the continent, but Addis is not far behind. If the recent expansion trends continue, the city could realize this ambition in the coming years.
Photo: Streets of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (Stefan Geens/ Flickr)
For China, it represents a possibility to exchange with the country and invest. Africa, and especially Ethiopia, is a land of opportunities, rich history, and diversity. The country is home to the headquarters of the African Union and the UN Economic Commission for Africa, can trace civilizations in its territory back to the 10th century BCE, and counts eleven UNESCO World Heritage Sites among its many cultural assets. Bilateral cooperation between both countries is growing, particularly as the number of Chinese investors and businessmen visiting Ethiopia is increasing. It has therefore crucial to increase the number of flights to China in order to meet demand as part of China’s major initiative to invest in Africa.
Investing in Ethiopia highlights the desire to further Chinese influence on the African continent, an essential component of the BRI. It also represents a shift in focus from the big infrastructure projects of recent years. No doubt the setbacks and failures of BRI in Africa have not gone unnoticed in Beijing. The country has to protect its reputation while investing in Africa, but it also is aware of Africa’s rise: From the AU’s ascension to the G20 in September 2023 to nations like Ethiopia asking China to cooperate on debt distress.
Addis Ababa is widely considered Africa’s diplomatic capital. It represents the political and economic hub of Ethiopia, and as mentioned above is home the AU headquarters, as well as regional offices of UNESCO, the European Economic Commission (EEC), and UNDP. It represents a real opportunity for China, and stronger ties between the two countries could leave other players like the US and EU at a severe diplomatic and economic disadvantage in the years to come.
As part of President Xi Jinping’s foreign policy, the Belt and Road Initiative has been a real opportunity for Africa to facilitate investment and development within the region. The continent has struggled to be viewed as an equal partner in the West, and the China’s interest and investment may prove key in the coming years. There is a clear, strong interest from China in the continent, especially in Ethiopia but the lack of clarity persists.
Likewise, China may be comfortable pursuing a stronger relationship with African countries today, but what will happen if in the coming years, these countries begin to outpace China in terms of development and income levels? As BRI has begun to adapt to new conditions, perhaps we will see a new iteration and strategy for it again in the coming decades.